WTTC downgrades prospects for MENA tourism in 2011

 The World Travel & Tourism Council has downgraded the forecast growth in the tourism sector’s direct contribution to GDP in almost all regions, with the most significant drop witnessed in the Middle East.

Globally, it is now projected at 3.2% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012 (in constant US dollar prices and exchange rates), compared with the stronger forecasts of 4.5% and 5.1% published in March.

The largest downward revision is in the Middle East, where growth in 2011 is now expected to be negative (-0.5% as against 4.7% in March).

Negative growth is also now forecast for North Africa (-1.4% compared with 1.1%).

This reflects the impact of the ‘Arab Spring’ on travel and tourism in the region in terms of lost business during uprisings, ongoing negative perceptions of safety and security, and concerns regarding the future political stability of newly democratised
countries.

WTTC President & CEO David Scowsill announced the revised figures at last week’s World Travel Market in London.

Scowsill said: “Travel & Tourism is one of the world’s great industries, providing 9% of global GDP and 260 million jobs; it drives economic growth, business relationships and social mobility.

“The industry is still growing strongly — but growth is lower than we had previously expected for both 2011 and 2012 due to the prevailing economic conditions and the disruption to travel patterns caused by natural disasters and social upheaval during 2011.”

Scowsill said that going forward, two big themes of 2012 are likely to be the rebound in tourism in the Middle East following the social upheaval of 2011 and the recovery of Japan following the earthquake and tsunami.

The WTTC has revised its 2012 forecast for the Middle East upwards, with 7.2% growth in travel and tourism direct GDP expected (compared with 5% forecast back in March).