The Flu Factor
Forget the global recession — that’s the least of the travel trade’s worries: 2009 has been the year of the Swine Flu and it hasn’t been a good one...
The travel industry has been trapped in a pincer, but if you thought it was the economic downturn that dealt the fatal blow to travel trade prosperity, think again: H1N1 was the chief executioner.
One travel trade professional has dubbed the 2009 holiday period as the “summer without the sunshine” and the grey clouds that the H1N1 hype has created show little sign of dissipating anytime soon.
However, it is important not to generalise — business travel has been resilient to Swine Flu hysteria although corporates are admittedly still holding their purse strings tight.
The real casualty of ‘The Flu Factor’ is the leisure sector.
Holidays have been cancelled and many long-haul destinations have suffered.
MEDIA TO BLAME
Bahrain International Travel Group general manager Paul Clabburn said the economic downturn played second fiddle to the media’s portrayal of Swine Flu this summer.
“It has been the singular most negative affecting discretionary travel this season — especially among the Arab community,” he told Arabian Travel News.
“Due to the continual referral to the pandemic, it has struck real concern into the travelling community and the effects of what may possibly befall them and their families.”
Certainly, more than the fear of contracting the actual virus, it was the worry of being quarantined in foreign countries if you had developed flu-like symptoms that was the biggest turn-off, said Clabburn.
“They simply did not want to take the risk and have all the worry and heartache that may befall a family if something happens,” he added.
“So they are staying at home or travelling to nearby GCC states where they feel more comfortable — very bad news for the travel industry at large.”
Clabburn was pessimistic about how soon bookings would recover from the flu effect given the timing of Ramadan.
“Hopefully, there will be a slight rise [in bookings] on the graph around Eid, but we need to get Swine Flu well and truly off the menu before confidence returns to a significant segment of our market,” he said.
“As the eternal pessimist I doubt if the travel industry in the GCC will see much joy until next summer at the earliest and let’s hope that by then we all still have jobs and have not caught yet another animalistic strain of flu, be it donkey, dog or even meerkat.”
Fear of contracting Swine Flu has also impacted booking lead times according to The Travel Collection managing director Jacqueline Campbell.
“What we found was that travellers throughout the Gulf had made enquiries and had an idea of where they wanted to go, but waited until the last minute to book,” she told ATN.
“What we have noticed is that Lebanon and Turkey had done well and some GCC residents are staying within the region for their holidays this year.”
AGENTS AFFECTED
Many agents told ATN that fears of contracting H1N1 had definitely impacted their leisure bookings this summer.
“We have had 30% of our bookings cancelled because of Swine Flu,” said Dubai’s Al Rais Travel branch supervisor Mohd Rafi.“The majority of these cancellations were clients who had booked holidays to The Gold Coast, Australia and the US.” However, customers had not minded travelling to South Africa, London and Paris, he added.
Rafi said he believed Swine Flu had more impact on summer sales than economic conditions because clients who had cancelled were those with families who did not want to put their children at risk of contracting H1N1.
Dubai’s Trans Arabian Travel operations manager George Joseph concurred with Rafi adding: “One of my colleagues had a cruise booking for Barcelona cancelled because the ship had reported cases of the flu.You can’t control it and many people are not rebooking — they are staying put as they are really afraid to travel.It is really affecting our business.”
At the top end of the market, one client of The Leading Hotels of the World told director of sales Middle East Hatem Chatter that he could “never forgive himself” if something happened to his children if he travelled during the summer.
Hatem added that in the Middle East, in addition to fears of contracting the virus, the name of the virus, which pertained to pigs/pork meant it was an “offensive” disease to catch. “It would have been more tolerated if it was horse, cow or bird flu,” he said.
Dnata senior divisional vice president Iain Andrew aid it was “difficult to accurately gauge” the damage Swine Flu had caused to summer sales but believed there were reasons for optimism including growth in airline ticket volumes at Dnata Agencies.
“This is a real indication that people are continuing to travel as usual — and in significant numbers,” he said. “We will be entering several traditionally busy holiday periods soon and we would expect to continue to see a small uplift in sales throughout the next two quarters.”
H1N1: THE FACTS
• The majority of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases are still occurring in people aged 12 to 17 years (based on data from Canada, Chile, Japan, UK and the US).
• Those most at risk are people with cardiovascular or respiratory disease, diabetes, cancer, asthma, obesity issues or pregnant women.
• At time of press, Swine Flu had impacted 18 Arab countries. The total number of sufferers hit 2187 and seven deaths had been reported.
Source: WHO
Dubai takes preventative steps
The Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM), in cooperation with the Dubai Health Authority (DHA), has revealed its plans to combat H1N1 in the UAE.
Committees have been created to counter the threat of H1N1 and 30,000 Swine Flu information leaflets have been distributed.
As many as 38 thermal detectors have been installed at airports and entry points in the UAE at a cost of AED 7.5 million (US $2.04 million).
The DTCM has said passengers are not restricted from travelling to any destination as long as they takethe necessary precautions against contracting H1N1.
The UAE has a stock of five million Tamiflu capsules, which treats the virus and vaccines to protect against the flu strain will arrive in the UAE in September.
Business travel OK
HRG senior corporate executive Alison Cook told ATN that Swine Flu had not impacted corporate sales. “In fact business is on the up,” she said.
“Bookings are coming in and our clients are definitely still travelling.
“They are downgrading from business- to economy-class but that’s due to economic conditions, not Swine Flu.”