Dubai revPAR drop of 25% is 'best' city can expect

RevPAR performance in Dubai is predicted to be down by at least 25% for year-end 2009 compared to 2008.

This is the ‘best case’ scenario, according to the Hotel Market Forecast from STR Global.

The ‘worst case’ performance scenario forecasts a drop in revPAR of 28%, said the report.

Dubai is the first market in the Middle East to be included in the Hotel Market Forecast, which provides 18 months of forecast data aimed at reducing uncertainty and improving the decision-making process of hotel owners and operators.

The Hotel Market Forecast gives subscribers the expected occupancy, average room rate and revenue per available room (RevPAR) performance for a selected market.

Produced in conjunction with e-forecasting.com, the advanced model covers 300 economic indicators, from gross domestic product to consumer confidence.

STR Global managing director Elizabeth Randall said: “Market conditions change rapidly, so it is increasingly necessary to stay regularly appraised of industry conditions.

“Our monthly Hotel Market Forecasts give the timely information needed to make important business decisions”.

The reports include 18 months of historic hotel performance data and details of the key assumptions used.

STR Global will also show subscribers how close the forecast was to what actually happened, so that trends can be better understood and charted.

The Hotel Market Forecast was launched in March 2009 across 42 markets and four have just been added: Malmo, Stcokholm, Oslo as well as Dubai.